Mike
A LOT of VERY good teams left in that tournament, even now it is a tough selection. Bayern has been dominant in a solid Bundesliga and have looked very comfortable in the Champs League too, but Barca and Real Madrid are basically tied at the top of a strong La Liga so I would consider them near equal honestly (even though Real has tripped up a couple of times this season). Juventus is dominating a "average" Serie A and have played well generally in the Champs Lg....after those four there is a definite break in ability with Atletico/PSG/Porto being the 2nd tier and I believe Monaco is a definite no-show in this race.
I would bet on any of these teams in their respective leagues, but only on the first four in this tournament. I am on Bayern/Barca/Real/Chelsea four team hedge from during the group stage, but can't say that I was committed to one team.
Personally I feel that Bayern is the best situated as they have almost won their domestic league which will allow them to rest/rotate players in a pretty deep squad, that is clearly one of the best in Europe. Barca/Real will be duking it out for the rest of the season, although Barca is closing in on the title. Juve should wrap up it's home league soon enough too and will allow them to rest/rotate too, and their squad isn't quite as deep as the first three teams, so I believe they will need to do this more.
At the moment a Bayern/Barca hedge (running at $3.00/$3.40 respectively) would yield a respectable $1.60 (60%) return. If you include Real Madrid @ $5.00 you are down to about a 19% yield which is actually worth looking at for a unit in my mind. Beyond that I don't trust the quality of the teams enough to really win 3 games against teams of this calibre (bench depth/overcoming injuries). They only way I might tweak this is to switch out PSG or Juve for Barca to improve the odds, but I just don't think PSG is good enough to win the whole thing, they might possibly beat Barca given the scheduling, but I don't seem them being a winning semi-finalist against (likely) Bayern.
FWIW, you should be able to get PSG @ 20+, Monaco in the 90's (I saw 94 this morning) and Porto @ 80.
Have fun.
Oz
